The US Team selection process in future years

On Monday, November 6, 2017 at 1:21:21 PM UTC-5, John Cochrane wrote:
The really screaming issue we saw this year is that pilot after pilot declined the opportunity.

Yes, John, I had the same startled reaction. I assume it's money and time. Lots of both are required, I'm told.

I'll take it one step further. Forty years ago, we had only two classes, Open and Standard, before adding 15M, and one world championships held every 2 years. It was a BIG DEAL to get on the U.S. Team (as illustrated by the alleged gaming of the preferential voting system that, among other things, is thought to have denied George Moffat the chance to defend his World Champion title in 1976 in Finland and occasional discussions of a SuperNationals with the top X in each class invited to participate to determine the U.S. Team slots).

With a few exceptions, the same small handful of top U.S. pilots returned to the World Championships time after time.

I'm only half kidding when I say that I'm not sure how many classes we have now (7?) or how many world championships there are (at least one a year, sometimes 2). But the word "proliferation" comes to mind. And arguably the number of serious competitors has shrunk (although the dramatic decrease in nationals attendance probably owes as much to class proliferation as to declining participation). As a result, the pool of U.S. Team members seems to have expanded. I don't want to say it's easier to get on the Team. But it does seem that way.

I'll defer to John when it comes to economic theory but I wonder if the declining "price of admission" to qualifying for the U.S. Team might spur demand for it over time, resulting in increased nationals participation by pilots who might otherwise fly a couple of regionals instead. This could be exacerbated (enhanced?) by the fact that pilots would have to commit a lot of time and personal funds to accept an invitation, thus reducing demand and prompting many to decline.

Chip Bearden

Good post Chip, but it turns out that it's not true that we just send the same pilots over and over again. A few stalwarts (masochists?) like Gary Ittner have done it many times, but you just notice them. Most pilots on US teams have gone to exactly one WGC, and most US team slots have been to pilots who went once. One problem the US team is trying to solve is the consequent loss of knowledge and experience. I'm an example, I went once, learned a lot, but all that experience is lost. Most of the team I went with (Kelly, Tyler, Elliot) went once, only Elliot going again, and that to Uvalde. It cost north of $35,000 and that was 2010.

I wonder if other teams are having this difficulty. Also knowing we're one step behind on the technology side before we show up can't help.

John Cochrane

On Monday, November 6, 2017 at 2:21:13 PM UTC-5, John Cochrane wrote:
Good post Chip, but it turns out that it's not true that we just send the same pilots over and over again.

Sorry, John, I thought I was clear in referring to the old days when the teams comprised George Moffat, Dick Johnson, AJ Smith, Dick Schreder, and a handful of others. Just for kicks, I went to http://www.ssa.org/USTeam?show=blog&id=2128 and checked out the teams for the years of my youth. In the 9 world championships between 1960 and 1978, only 14 different pilots filled 34 of the team slots. Dick Johnson went 8 times followed by Schreder, AJ, and Moffat with 4 times each. It's perhaps no coincidence that the latter two garnered 3 of America's 5 world championships, each of them winning the 2nd time around (and 4th, in Moffat's case).

In 2012, by contrast (the last "big championship" year on this page), the U..S. Team comprised 11 pilots just for this year alone!

FWIW, at least two of those pilots declined invitations to participate in this year's selection. So I'll stay with my tentative conclusions that it's "easier" to get on a U.S. Team (which might have the effect of attracting pilots to national contests) while agreeing with you that the cost and time might discourage pilots from doing so more than once or twice. As you point out, that's bad for U.S. Team prospects over time.

Interestingly, only 3 of the 12 (twelve!) pilots who participated with you in 2010 showed up two years later, but I don't know how much of that was team selection vs. cost/time. If cost is the big inhibitor, the solution is simple: just raise more funding for the Team!

Chip Bearden

On Monday, 6 November 2017 14:27:39 UTC-7, wrote:
On Monday, November 6, 2017 at 2:21:13 PM UTC-5, John Cochrane wrote:
Good post Chip, but it turns out that it's not true that we just send the same pilots over and over again.

Sorry, John, I thought I was clear in referring to the old days when the teams comprised George Moffat, Dick Johnson, AJ Smith, Dick Schreder, and a handful of others. Just for kicks, I went to http://www.ssa.org/USTeam?show=blog&id=2128 and checked out the teams for the years of my youth. In the 9 world championships between 1960 and 1978, only 14 different pilots filled 34 of the team slots. Dick Johnson went 8 times followed by Schreder, AJ, and Moffat with 4 times each. It's perhaps no coincidence that the latter two garnered 3 of America's 5 world championships, each of them winning the 2nd time around (and 4th, in Moffat's case).

In 2012, by contrast (the last "big championship" year on this page), the U.S. Team comprised 11 pilots just for this year alone!

FWIW, at least two of those pilots declined invitations to participate in this year's selection. So I'll stay with my tentative conclusions that it's "easier" to get on a U.S. Team (which might have the effect of attracting pilots to national contests) while agreeing with you that the cost and time might discourage pilots from doing so more than once or twice. As you point out, that's bad for U.S. Team prospects over time.

Interestingly, only 3 of the 12 (twelve!) pilots who participated with you in 2010 showed up two years later, but I don't know how much of that was team selection vs. cost/time. If cost is the big inhibitor, the solution is simple: just raise more funding for the Team!

Chip Bearden

Another factor may be the short time to prepare and plan for 2018 events. With the change in selection process, the folks going to the 2018 events have 9 months or less to prepare, line up equipment, housing etc etc.

Previously the individuals were selected 18+ months advance, providing time to even attend the pre-worlds if they so desired.

The new selection process could have started after Uvalde and provided a couple of more months.