Hard Deck

On Friday, February 2, 2018 at 5:44:56 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Friday, February 2, 2018 at 9:54:53 AM UTC-8, wrote:

I don't have data on earlier accident and fatality rates but it would be great if someone smart who's inclined that way could analyze it (9B???).


Here's a link to some files summarizing Glider Fatal and Non-Fatal Accidents over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2013.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1sb...apIOscTfzuk5aY

For the fatal accidents I went to the trouble to read the accident reports as categorize the accident by phase of flight (TO, LDG and FLT - in-flight) as well as probable cause (my categories) as follows - with percent of accidents:

Stall/Spin - 39%
Flight Into Terrain - 17%
Loss of Control - 14%
Midair - 8%
Incapacitation - 7%
Assembly/Config - 7%
Structural - 7%

I also extracted Stall/Spin Accidents as the the most likely way to kill yourself thermalling low and highlighted the three that were during a contest.. (Trigger warning - not fun to read this stuff when you know the people). I can't see that any were thermalling low to avoid an outlanding, except perhaps the Ventus 2 crash at Lea County airport at Hobbs in 1997 where it was reported the pilot made a low approach though no mention of circling and one could easily imagine the attraction of wanting to land on a runway.

If someone wants to sort through the 551 non-fatal accidents - 131 are on approach and 151 are during landing. Please have at it. I'm sure the accident report will mention if it was at a contest and at the home airport or a landout. Since they most likely interviewed the pilot there will probably be enough to read to get a sense of things - though accuracy of reporting may be questionable.

Andy Blackburn
9B

Andy - thanks for the data. Backs up the trends we see everywhere, not just racing.

As non racer but a long time professional pilot and instructor I have found this entire thread very revealing about the sport of soaring. Like a "truth window".

No matter if it is power or gliders - the decline of new pilots and the overall health and status of GA is getting exponentially worse.

We are in a state of crisis and have to all work together to solve it. I don't know all the answers but we are trying to make headway where we can.

I do know that large egos, disregard of best safe practices, hubris, risk taking without cognizance, degradation of basic skills, poor decision making, not learning from the past, ignorance and selfishness are all working against us.

The world has changed, like it or not and we are down to the "adapt or perish" stage of our sport and GA as well.

Tom
Sugarbush Soaring

On Friday, February 2, 2018 at 9:52:17 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn wrote:

Here's a link to some files summarizing Glider Fatal and Non-Fatal Accidents over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2013.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1sb...apIOscTfzuk5aY



I've received reports of an inoperative link:

Try this one if you have an interest:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...aY?usp=sharing

Andy Blackburn
9B

At 00:13 04 February 2018, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Friday, February 2, 2018 at 9:52:17 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn
wrote:

Here's a link to some files summarizing Glider Fatal and Non-Fatal
Accidents over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2013.

https://drive.google.com/open?
id=1sbx5LHrvryYyYRU0UnapIOscTfzuk5aY



I've received reports of an inoperative link:

Try this one if you have an interest:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...yYyYRU0UnapIOs
cTfzuk5aY?usp=sharing

Andy Blackburn
9B

Andy, The 4/1/2004 midair at Oso, WA. The Libelle pilot was not
killed. He walked out after a parachute deployment.

On Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 6:15:06 PM UTC-8, 3j wrote:
At 00:13 04 February 2018, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Friday, February 2, 2018 at 9:52:17 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn
wrote:

Here's a link to some files summarizing Glider Fatal and Non-Fatal
Accidents over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2013.

https://drive.google.com/open?
id=1sbx5LHrvryYyYRU0UnapIOscTfzuk5aY



I've received reports of an inoperative link:

Try this one if you have an interest:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...yYyYRU0UnapIOs
cTfzuk5aY?usp=sharing

Andy Blackburn
9B

Andy, The 4/1/2004 midair at Oso, WA. The Libelle pilot was not
killed. He walked out after a parachute deployment.

Thanks - I'm sure he'll be glad to hear that.

I'll go back and check why that came out that way.

Andy

On Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 8:24:32 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 6:15:06 PM UTC-8, 3j wrote:
At 00:13 04 February 2018, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Friday, February 2, 2018 at 9:52:17 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn
wrote:

Here's a link to some files summarizing Glider Fatal and Non-Fatal
Accidents over a 20 year period between 1994 and 2013.

https://drive.google.com/open?
id=1sbx5LHrvryYyYRU0UnapIOscTfzuk5aY



I've received reports of an inoperative link:

Try this one if you have an interest:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folde...yYyYRU0UnapIOs
cTfzuk5aY?usp=sharing

Andy Blackburn
9B

Andy, The 4/1/2004 midair at Oso, WA. The Libelle pilot was not
killed. He walked out after a parachute deployment.

Thanks - I'm sure he'll be glad to hear that.

I'll go back and check why that came out that way.

Andy

Apologies, I should have checked first before making a joke. I see now this was the Libelle/DG-400 midair.

The database correctly shows the fatality in the DG, not the Libelle. The way the NTSB tracks these accidents there were two gliders involved in a fatal accident with a single fatality. There are some others, such as the towplane that collided with a Cirrus in Colorado. That one show three aircraft and four fatalities with a glider involved.

9B

Same thing happened to me when I was independently querying the NTSB database a few nights ago. Twice I read fatality reports involving pilots I knew were still around (e.g., KS)! Turns out there were two reports for the midairs, one for each aircraft. The reports, often written by investigators who know little about soaring, are imperfect albeit sobering. And they're searchable by various criteria. And downloadable.

Without mentioning types, I was struck by how often certain gliders seemed to show up. Maybe 9B could do some analysis leading to a "safest gliders to fly" or "safest gliders for lower-time pilots" or "safest gliders to crash" report. Seriously. Many of the data needed are available, not all from the same source, of course: accidents, registrations, hours and ratings of the affected pilots (usually), hours in type, context (contest participation is often mentioned when applicable), contest experience by pilot and by type, pilot ranking at the time, age, etc. I wish the digitized versions went back further (1982 IIRC) but there is still a lot of valuable information.

Chip Bearden

Andy -- Many thanks for this incredibly useful resource--far beyond the current issue too.

"Stall spin" usually means low altitude maneuvering. A stall spin at 5000' doesn't usually result in an accident. And all the ones I have looked at, the stall spin is the last link on a long accident chain involving increasing desperation and very low altitude maneuvering.

John Cochrane.

On Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 8:31:44 PM UTC-8, John Cochrane wrote:
Andy -- Many thanks for this incredibly useful resource--far beyond the current issue too.

"Stall spin" usually means low altitude maneuvering. A stall spin at 5000' doesn't usually result in an accident. And all the ones I have looked at, the stall spin is the last link on a long accident chain involving increasing desperation and very low altitude maneuvering.

John Cochrane.

I believe I only count stall/spin when it terminates at the ground. Stall/spin not on TO or LDG almost always is in the mountains. There are a few of those.

Updated the fatal accident database through 2017 for the morbidly analytical.

Andy