|
| If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. |
|
|||||||
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
|
#7
April 18th 20, 05:22 AM
posted to rec.aviation.soaring
|
|||
|
|||
Soaring Contest and Coronavirus
A test that is wrong 50% of the time can be replaced with a coin toss. Not true actually, a test with a 50% chance of being wrong can be quite useful. Suppose 2% of the population has the disease. Take a test that has 100% chance of positive if you do have it, and 50% chance of positive if you don't have it. It tells the 2 people who do have it they have it, and it tells one other healthy person he has it too. Three people stay home, 97 go soaring in perfect safety. Take a test that has 100% chance of negative if you don't have it, but 50% chance of positive if you do have it. 98 people are correctly cleared, 1 person is incorrectly cleared, 1 stays home. Well, we got half the sick people out of the population and reduced the reproduction rate by half. John Cochrane. 
|
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads
|
||||
| Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
| Coronavirus impacting activities? | [email protected] | Soaring | 110 | March 24th 20 03:31 PM |
| Coronavirus | ProfJ | Soaring | 26 | March 9th 20 09:23 PM |
| Region 3 Soaring Contest at Harris Hill Soaring 2019 | Joan Taylor | Soaring | 0 | May 29th 19 05:40 PM |
| Are OLC and Contest Soaring really that different? | Sean Fidler | Soaring | 28 | March 3rd 12 12:08 AM |
| US Region 7 Soaring Contest | Paul Remde | Soaring | 0 | March 23rd 05 03:18 AM |
Threaded Mode