Night flying in the mountians in a cessna 150,

"Nomen Nescio" ] wrote in message
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From: "Peter Duniho"

"Ron Garret" wrote in message
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Yes it is, you just didn't read what I wrote very carefully. Pay
particular attention to the phrase "some time in your career."

Only if you're speaking of a hypothetical career prior to its start.

That depends on what you mean by "the odds". The odds on any one play
are the same, but the cumulative odds of experiencing a win or an
engine
failure *at some point in your life* goes up with every play/flight.

Define "cumulative odds". The word "cumulative" implies that you're
talking
about the odds as the flight hours accrue. In that respect, your claim
is
false.

Specifically, if the odds of winning on a single try are P then the
odds
of winning some time in your career are 1-(1-P)^N where N is the number
of times you play.

That statement is true only when you are calculating the odds prior to
ALL
trials (flights), and have determined the number of trials (flights) in
advance. It's not a useful calculation for the purpose of this
discussion.
No one knows before they've started flying how many flights they will
make
in a lifetime.

Pete

It is a useful calculation for making the decision as to "Should I fly
over
the mountains at night?"
Using Ron Garret's example of 1 in 100 chance of having an engine failure,
and assuming that an engine failure at night over the mountains has a
100% chance of being fatal (I know it's not 100%, but I'd bet it's awfully
close). And that you have a "99% chance" of having an engine failure if
you fly back and forth over the mountains "460 times". I agree with you
that on the 461st you have no more chance of having an engine failure
than the first time you make the flight. BUT....there IS a 99% chance that
you don't live long enough to make that 461st flight. While your assertion
is quite correct that the closer you get to the end of your flying career,
the
lower the odds of having an engine failure (and consequently, crash and
burn on a mountainside), the higher the odds are that you're already dead.
In other words, when you make that 461st flight.....chances are that
you're
in a box that's been loaded in the back of the plane.

This brings to mind the old saying:
"It's easy to beat death, but death's advantage is that it only has to win
once"

Yes it is a very old saying, especially since someone like me has already
been clinically dead once. I Guess I won that round.