How much longer?

On Apr 4, 8:47*pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? * At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

JH, I know you dont like me responding to your posts but for the sake
of discussion I might add some perspective. I started flying at 14 and
I am mid 40ies now so I have been at this for some time. The one thing
that has been consistent in those 30 years is listening to complaints
about the cost of flying. I have been ask what it costs to own and
operate my airplanes and I allways tell people that I dont keep track
of it and even if it cost twice as much I would still fly because it
is worth it to me. I think it is more about getting the most out of
your flying and not so much worrying about the cost. There have been
plenty of " Weekend Pilots" who get bored and quit but for pilots who
challenge themselves with things like long XCs, advanced ratings,
aerobatics, etc., the cost will be less of an issue.


Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. *Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

This is a shocker, but I would bet that for alot of people on this
list they never thought they would see the wages they are making
either. Ive read that the average american works less minutes for a
gallon of gas now than in the 70s


That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. *So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? * Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--

I think the higher energy costs will foster better effeciency in
airframes and engines. Look at Diamond, Cirrus, and Columbia/Cessna. I
flew a 600 mile delivery flight on a kitplane I built and I trued at a
buck twenty on 3.9 gals/hr (With two adults and full bagage). Try that
with a 152. The first jet airliner I flew would carry 148 pax at .80
at 11000 lbs/hr (In cruise). The one I currently fly hauls 178 sheep
at .78 at under 7000 lbs/hr. These increases in efficiency have
trickled down to biz jets and larger GA and I dont think it will be
long before we see it at the sport pilot level. My prediction is that
we will go to OSH in a few years and see all manner of advancements in
technology.
Frank