PHIL BOYER: 40% OF AOPA MEMBERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THEIR FLYING DUE TO FUEL PRICES

On Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:51:35 -0500, "Steven P. McNicoll"
wrote in
:

Speculators are driving up the price of oil by betting that demand
in the future will be high and supply will be low. If something
happened that would affect future supply or demand they would
revise their bets.

Not if the "something" that happened reduced world oil supplies, like
an Israeli attack on Iran, or Persian Gulf blockade, or ..., the
speculators would only press their bets higher.

I can't conceive of an event, short of government intervention, that
will cause oil speculators to reverse their bets other than a
worldwide plague or natural catastrophe massive enough to kill a
significant number of consumers. Perhaps you are able to provide a
few examples.

"Something" is happening now, but it's effect on the price of oil will
take some time to manifest itself in a meaningful way, if ever. And
it will continue to happen from now on if there is no significant
decline in oil prices. People are filling the seats of their
automobiles for their work commutes, leaving their cars home and
taking their bicycles (There's little question we can use the
exercise.) or motor-scooters instead. They are trading in their
vehicles that have poor fuel economy for higher MPG autos. And lo and
behold they are beginning to use rapid transit (up 20%). The American
people's days of toting 3,000 pounds of steel along with them on the
way to work or the grocery store are on their way out, probably for
good. Now that weight is being divided by more passengers, or being
left in the garage. And air carriers are cutting the number of
flights they offer, and AOPA tells us light GA flights are down 40%.
The golden age of the gasoline fueled automobile and cheap seats for
international tourists and business people are behind us (Air carriers
are beginning to demand minimum three days stay for coach pax.). Times
are indeed changin'.

With the currently devalued dollar resulting from Bush's massive
deficit war spending and artificially lowering interest rates in a
desperate attempt to keep our nation's economy afloat, I don't expect
to see the past level of prosperity achieved by the common man to
return for a good long time, if ever. It's going to be nothing but
price inflation until some sort of equilibrium is attained. Our
nation will have to turn from consuming imported goods and return to
exporting US made products, or it will drown in red ink.

Unregulated free trade, and poorly regulated investment markets enable
scoundrels to swindle the public. Privatization of governmental
functions provides corporations with monopolies. Ours is a nation of
the people, not of heartless corporate entities, and we the people
need to take back our rightful power to direct our nation's course and
policies. ...
--

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the
greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most
obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity
of conclusions which they delighted in explaining to colleagues, which
they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread
by thread, into the fabric of their lives." - Tolstoy