Beat up / worn out Arrow valuation

Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the current
owner.

"Chuck" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone,

I thought I'd throw this out for discussion and see what comes from
some of the experienced people on the list.

I'm helping out some at a local school. The owner of the school is a
REAL penny pincher. He scrimps and saves anywhere he can. He'd reuse
oil if he could (he already fights with the A&Ps about reusing old
spark plugs). But in the process, he's let his fleet go to hell --
and I mean REALLY to hell.

He's got what used to be a nice '78 Arrow PA28R-201. The plane is set
up nicely with ADF, DNE, Garmin 430, second Nav/COM, Autopilot, and
power trim. But he's let the interior go a bit -- I'd say a 7/10.
And the outside is crap -- at most a 5/10. Some TLC might bring that
up to 6 or 7/10 - - but it needs paint touch up to get that rating.

But the worst part is the engine. 100 hour time came up on the past
TBO engine and the A&P found one clyinder completely dead -- no
compression. He pulled the jug and found the side of the piston eaten
away, the rings torn loose, and a ton of scrap metal pieces in the
capture screen. WOOPS -- time for a rebuild. Problem is, Mr Stingy
not only hasn't taken care of his planes -- he hasn't been putting
away a nest egg (I guess he just thought that engine would go on
forever). So, he doesn't have the money to rebuild.

He's trying to sell the Arrow. But its kinda hard to sell a plane
with a dead engine. And there is a long list of little to medium
things that need to be fixed (like replacing a good deal of the front
gear which has a bunch of slop in it).

So, he obviously can't get what he'd like for the plane. The big
discussion in the shop area has been what the plane might be worth.
And whether it might be worth trying to pick up cheap and fix up.

Anybody out there like to hazard a guess on what it might be worth?
And would it be worth our time to pick it up, do the maint ourselves
(yes, we have A&Ps in the group), and keep or sell it??? I think
AOPA's VRef shows it worth about $60 or so, but we all feel that is
very high for this plane's condition.



Chuck

"Steve Foley" wrote in message
...
Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the
current
owner.


That will get you the high end value.

Another thing to do is factor in risk. In this case, Chuck and his buddies
have less risk because they know the plane. However, the likely sales price
is what someone else, who doesn't know anything about the plane other than
what they can see or pay to find out, is likely to offer.

The second method will get a low end, where they should probably start their
negotiations.

In article ,
"Dude" wrote:

"Steve Foley" wrote in message
...
Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the
current
owner.


That will get you the high end value.

Another thing to do is factor in risk. In this case, Chuck and his buddies
have less risk because they know the plane. However, the likely sales price
is what someone else, who doesn't know anything about the plane other than
what they can see or pay to find out, is likely to offer.

The second method will get a low end, where they should probably start their
negotiations.


If the operator has been cutting corners on maintenance, you could be
surprised at the kind of fleas hiding in that dog! I would expect worn
gear trunions, old hoses, leaky fuel bladders, corrosion, a prop that
needs expensive AD compliance, crazed glass -- just to name a few
starters.

--
Remove _'s from email address to talk to me.

Orval is correct on the miscellaneous parts that will need attention -
corroded wheel hups cause @250 per half, hydraulic actuators about the
same. There is a SB1006 on wing corrosion that requires that the tanks
be pulled (might as well do that anyway to replace the hoses as they
will be cracked by now). It's likely that Lycoming will insist that
the engine core be junked on rebuild.

VREF is 10-15% high. In pristine condition, I'd guess the plane might
be worth $80K, but people who pay to put aircraft in pristine condition
usually lose 50% of the cost of doing so. If you want a nice Arrow,
buy one in which someone has already invested that premium.

It NEVER pays to buy a project unless you can do virtually of the work
yourself, and even at the cost of the parts will just about equal the
gain in value.

On 9-May-2005, "Paul kgyy" wrote:

VREF is 10-15% high. In pristine condition, I'd guess the plane might
be worth $80K


If you mean "otherwise pristine but with a run-out engine," then the $80K
figure is probably too high. But if you can find a very clean Arrow III
with the avionics described in this thread, including a Garmin 430, with a
zero time or near zero time engine for $80K I would be stunned. II think it
would sell very quickly for $10K more.

--
-Elliott Drucker

ORVAL FAIRBAIRN wrote:

In article ,
"Dude" wrote:


"Steve Foley" wrote in message
...

Figure out what it would cost to pay to get it fixed, and what it would be
worth after the repairs. Subtract the repair cost from the final value -
that's what you should pay.

If you do the work yourself, you should pocket the savings, not the
current
owner.


That will get you the high end value.

Another thing to do is factor in risk. In this case, Chuck and his buddies
have less risk because they know the plane. However, the likely sales price
is what someone else, who doesn't know anything about the plane other than
what they can see or pay to find out, is likely to offer.

The second method will get a low end, where they should probably start their
negotiations.



If the operator has been cutting corners on maintenance, you could be
surprised at the kind of fleas hiding in that dog! I would expect worn
gear trunions, old hoses, leaky fuel bladders, corrosion, a prop that
needs expensive AD compliance, crazed glass -- just to name a few
starters.


That's what I was thinking, and why to me the value of the plane would
be $0.